|MAC||Indirect emissions developed countries||Direct emissions developed countries||Indirect emissions developing countries||Direct emissions developing countries|
|Business as usual||5.38||2.41||7.54||3.44|
BAU emissions in developing countries are again higher than in industrialised countries. This is due to lower coefficients of performance (COP) in developing countries in often older cars. Leakage rates can also be affected by temperature and are higher in hot countries. Additionally, there is no collection system for used refrigerants in many developing countries, causing end-of-life emissions to be higher. The calculation assumes that the same energy efficiency standards can be reached in developing countries over time.
Calculations show that a high increase of emissions is expected for growing economies such as China and India. While China’s emissions of more than 500 Mt CO2eq are already the highest in the world, India’s emissions will reach levels of more than 300 Mt CO2eq and exceed those of the US and Europe by 2030. Emissions in the US and Europe will grow less from less than 200 Mt CO2eq in 2015 to around 250 Mt CO2eq in the US and Europe. With the phase-in of green technology based on natural refrigerants, the emissions can significantly be reduced. The highest emission savings of more than 250 Mt CO2eq annually can be achieved in China by 2030. Following by a large margin are the US, Europe and India, with an annual mitigation potential of around 70 Mt CO2eq. Indonesia and Japan are among the top-6 with expected total emissions of 68 and 60 Mt CO2eq, and emission reduction potentials of 15 and 18 Mt CO2eq respectively. The top-6 countries make up 57% of the global mitigation potential for MACs.