A study by the European Commission quantifies the massive health and economic burdens of PFAS – so-called ‘forever chemicals’. It projects substantial environment and health related costs reaching up to €440 billion by 2050 under business as usual.
PFAS (Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) and their health impacts have been studied for years – as highlighted by Dr. Daniel de Graaf from the German Environmental Agency (UBA). Now, the European Commission provides hard numbers: if we continue utilizing PFAS at current levels, PFAS-related health and environmental costs could reach up to €440 billion by 2050. At the same time, evidence from cooling shows that widely used fluorinated refrigerants degrade into trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), a highly persistent PFAS. The implication is clear: transitioning to natural refrigerants is essential to cut greenhouse gases and prevent permanent chemical contamination.
What are PFAS and why they matter for cooling
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), often referred to as “forever chemicals”, persist and accumulate in the environment as they resist degradation. In cooling, several fluorinated refrigerants either are PFAS, such as R1234yf, or degrade into PFAS and TFA such as R134a. Their persistence drives long-term contamination of water, soil and food chains resulting in continuous human exposure and growing health and economic impacts.
Key findings of the EU study
Key findings of the EU study
Scientific evidence links prolonged PFAS exposure to a range of health issues, including:
• higher rates of respiratory infections
• thyroid disease
• liver damage
• reduced fertility (e.g. reduced sperm count and motility)
• elevated maternal and neonatal risks (e.g. gestational hypertension, reduced fetal growth and low birth weight)
The EU report translates these health effects into economic terms, estimating an annual burden of approximately €39.5 billion in health-related costs linked to PFAS exposure, as well as €3.8 billion each year for environmental remediation and water treatment across the European economic area. Furthermore, the study modelled multiple regulatory scenarios until 2050 with the following conclusions:
Business-as-usual: results in approximately €440 billion cumulative costs.
Drinking Water Directive compliance: limited relief as drinking water is only one source of exposure and its treatment results in additional costs.
Stricter Environmental Quality Standards (EQS): leads to health gains and corresponding cost savings but requires significant investments in monitoring and wastewater treatment.
Broad PFAS restriction/phase out: delivers the greatest long-term benefit, reducing costs by about €110 billion compared to business-as-usual.
From an economic perspective, the study provides quantitative support for preventive regulatory approaches. Delayed intervention allows PFAS contamination and exposure to continue, thus increasing future health system and remediation costs. Early regulatory action, although associated with initial investment costs, generates net societal benefits over time. The European Environmental Bureau’s proposal “Protection first: EU leadership to deliver safe chemicals with high protection of peoples health and the environment (opens in a new window)” reinforces this agenda, calling for a strengthened implementation of REACH, an EU regulation that governs the registration, evaluation, authorization and restriction of chemicals, to prevent PFAS crises at the source and accelerate phase out of the most harmful substances. It cautions against deregulation “disguised as simplification,” arguing that high protection drives innovation, reduces long term public costs, and safeguards public health.
TFA: The end state of many fluorinated refrigerants
- Most fluorinated refrigerants, such as R134a which is mainly used for passenger cooling in cars, form TFA (trifluoroacetic acid), a highly persistent PFAS. Depending on their composition, the conversion ranges from 20-70%.
- R1234yf, though low in GWP, converts to 100% TFA, meaning every emitted kilogramme of R1234yf ends up as TFA.
- As TFA doesn’t degrade or break down in natural environments, exposure persists indefinitely once contamination occurs.
- TFA is now found in soil, drinking water, groundwater, rainwater, rivers and lakes, already approaches regulatory limits.
- Conventional treatment is ineffective and advanced options (e.g. reverse osmosis) are costly.
- Health concerns linked to TFA include liver toxicity, potential reproductive toxicity, aquatic toxicity, and long term accumulation in water and food chains.
- Currently, only two companies hold the patent for the production of R1234yf giving them a de facto a monopoly: Solstice and (formerly Honeywell) and Chemours (formerly DuPont).
Effects on refrigeration and air conditioning
The transition toward sustainable refrigeration has historically focused on reducing ozone depletion and the climate crisis. However, refrigeration and air conditioning still rely largely on fluorinated refrigerants, creating dual risks: high climate impact (through leakage and energy use) and the buildup of PFAS/TFA. Natural refrigerants such as R290 (propane), R744 (CO2) and R717 (ammonia) offer a dual benefit:
Climate: very low global warming potential (GWP) and strong energy efficiency potential.
Chemicals: no fluorine, hence no PFAS/TFA formation.
Best practice example: Greener Reefers, a practical pathway with R290
The Greener Reefers project demonstrates that R290 reefers can considerably reduce greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerants and eliminate PFAS/TFA liabilities. The advantages of R290:
- No PFAS formation
- Global warming potential below 3
- High energy efficiency in medium and low-temperature applications
- Compatible with a standards based safety approach (ISO 20854) for flammable refrigerants in thermal containers, supported by risk assessments, design measures, leak detection, ventilation and operating protocols
Why move now
The Commission’s assessment makes clear that PFAS pollution is not only an environmental and public health issue, but also a substantial economic liability. Delaying PFAS phaseouts increases public health burdens and locks in remediation needs.
In refrigeration, fluorinated “transition” gases can lower GWP short term, yet they create permanent PFAS accumulation, shifting the problem from climate to environment and health.
Natural refrigerants (hydrocarbons, CO2, ammonia, air, water) are the only refrigerant class that simultaneously eliminates:
- Ozone depletion
- Global warming impact from refrigerants
- PFAS/TFA formation resulting in persistent environmental contamination
- Long-term regulatory and remediation liabilities
Early, coordinated action to replace fluorinated refrigerants with natural alternatives delivers the highest societal return: fewer greenhouse gases, the elimination of “forever chemicals,” lower long term costs and stronger protection of water, ecosystems and health. The technology is ready — scaling it now relies on policy and implementation.